I predict that we will reach 420 Covid deaths a day on average in the UK by winter. At time of writing in autumn of 2021, we have around 140 Covid related deaths a day. 4 The increase will come from the schools returning after the summer holidays and the ending of social distancing measures. Let me explain:

Schools


In Scotland, schools went back before the rest of the UK, cases have jumped. Since reopening from the 16th August, Covid cases jumped from 1,567 to 5,529 by the 17 September. 2 Although Covid cases did declined slightly in September, probably as people took more precautions. Covid cases in Scotland have tripled, which will lead to a rise in hospitalisations and ultimately deaths. England should show the same trends.

At first glance, this does not seem to have been the case. Since schools in England reopened on the 3rd September, Covid cases have fallen from a seven daily average of 28.544.1 to 22.164.7 on the 10 September. 1 However you would only expect Covid case to rise following an incubation period for Covid. As of the date of writing, England’s schools have only been open for just over two weeks. We will have to wait and see if England’s schools will cause Covid cases to rises, as they have done in Scotland.

Schools are unfortunately the big spreader, as they house hundreds of children in close proximity. There is no better place to spread Covid to every home across the land.

Social distancing


The British government used the summer holidays to hide the increase in Covid cases coming from the ending social distancing measures. This is a clear example of a bait and switch, as there were less Covid cases despite the ending of social distancing measures.

The Covid cases in the UK when the schools closed dropped from a seven-day average of 47,956 on the 16 July down to 25,815 on the 30 July. 3 Then Covid rebounded as the effects of school closers wore off, reaching an average of 39,077.6 on the 3rd September. 3 If the drop in Covid cases were due to the ending of social distancing, Covid would not have rebounded.

Data problems


Two contrary points that should be mentioned. As Covid cases have fallen to 32,321.6 seven-day average on the 9th September. 3 This decline has only lasted for 6 days, and the schools reopening should change this. Secondly when the schools where closed, the testing of pupils had stopped. This would have reduced the reporting of Covid cases, with many more going under the radar.

Death prediction


A dally death toll of 420 would be too high for any government to ignore. It would only take 239 days to reach another 100,000 deaths. If it continued, it would only take 3 years to match the equivalent of the UK World War Two fatalities. If you are wondering, the UK suffered 450,700 fatalities during the Second World War. 6

This would led to a clash between the governing Conservatives who are anti lockdown and the pro lockdown Labour Party who are in opposition. Choosing between more lockdowns or thousands of death could be a poison challis for those making the decisions.

Government crisis


A dally death toll of 420 would be too high for any government to ignore. It would only take 239 days to reach another 100,000 deaths. If Covid death continued at 420 deaths a day, it would only take 3 years to match UK World War Two losses. If you are wondering, the UK suffered 450,700 fatalities during the Second World War. 6

This would led to a clash between the governing Conservatives who are anti lockdown and the pro lockdown Labour Party who are in opposition. More lockdown or thousands of death could be a poison challis for those making the decisions.

The false hope – Vaccine


I must dampen hopes for the vaccine; it is not a panacea for Covid. Since Covid has proven its ability to mutate fast, possibly even faster than vaccines can be produced. Being able to mutate from Alpha into Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants in the space of a year and a half.

The second problem is that the vaccines are wearing off. With the Zoe study, reporting that by four to five months the Pfizer vaccine is only 74% effective and the AstraZeneca vaccine after four to five months is only 67% effective. 5 Clearly as has begun to happen, we will all need more doses of the vaccines to ward off Covid. This is even before much of the world has had its first does.

Summering up


Unless a much better vaccine comes a long, freedom will come with risks. To me it does not look like the Covid pandemic is far from over, despite the vaccines.

By Arran Wilkins © 2021 (text only)

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(1) GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK, Cases in England Available at: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England [Accessed 18th September 2021].

(2) The Scottish Government, ‘Coronavirus (COVID-19): Daily Data for Scotland’ (The Scottish Government, 2021). Table 5 – Reported numbers of COVID-19 tests and numbers of new cases reported in Scotland

Document Available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/ [Accessed 10th and 18th September 2021].

(3) GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK, Cases in United Kingdom Available at: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases [Accessed 10th and 19th September 2021].

(4) GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK, Deaths in United Kingdom Available at: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths [Accessed 10th and 18th September 2021].

(5)  ZOE COVID Study, Is Covid vaccine protection fading? Available at: https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-protection-fading [Accessed 10th and 19th September 2021].

(6) The National WWII Museum, Research Starters: Worldwide Deaths in World War II Available at: https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war [Accessed 10th September 2021].

(Image) geralt. Pixabay. Pixabay License. Available at: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/virus-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-5675422/ [Accessed 18th September 2021].


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